Good morning, it's Saturday, August 1. Oil giants are posting their biggest profits since 2022 — and every dollar traces back to the war you're paying for at the pump.
Also in today's issue: Iran targets U.S. water systems, $23 billion in student debt erased, TPS ends, nursing homes scramble.
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Big Oil's War Payday
You've probably seen the numbers. ExxonMobil posted $14.5 billion in quarterly profit on Friday. Chevron came in at $12.1 billion — nearly quadrupling last year. Shell reported close to $10 billion on Thursday. Combined, the three biggest Western oil companies made roughly $36 billion in three months. Exxon alone cleared about $160 million a day.
Here's what that means at your kitchen table: $516. That's the extra cost the average American household has paid in higher fuel prices since the Iran war began on February 28, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, which tracks the data weekly using federal numbers. Nationwide, the total runs past $69 billion. If prices hold through summer, the per-household figure crosses $650.
Now look — oil companies didn't start this war. They don't set crude prices. But the war's near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway that normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil — is the main reason Brent crude averaged $104 a barrel this quarter, up from $68 a year ago. Gas crossed $4 a gallon again in late July after briefly dipping during a short-lived ceasefire. Before the war, it sat comfortably below $3. The cost of pumping oil barely changed, but the selling price jumped — and that gap is profit.
Where is the money going? Mostly to shareholders. Exxon returned $9.4 billion to investors this quarter through dividends and buybacks. Chevron sent back $6.5 billion. Congressional Democrats want some of that redirected. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Representative Ro Khanna of California introduced the Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act, which would tax 50% of the difference between the current oil price and last year's average — but only on companies producing at least 300,000 barrels per day. Smaller producers would be exempt. The revenue would go to lower-income Americans as tax rebates.
The industry's pushback has been fierce. Exxon CEO Darren Woods told investors Friday that the company already canceled planned European investments after a similar tax there. The American Petroleum Institute calls the proposal "short-sighted." And there's reason for caution: the windfall tax of 1980 raised less revenue than expected because oil prices collapsed. But here's what makes 2026 different — prices aren't falling because they're propped up by an active war with no clear endpoint. As long as the Strait stays closed and Brent stays above $100, these margins hold.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, estimates the war now costs the average household over $1,200 when you add in groceries, transportation, and higher interest rates. That number grows every week the conflict continues. Two things to watch: whether the windfall tax gains traction — it has no Republican support — and whether any of these profits get reinvested in supply that might bring prices down. So far, the answer is mostly no. The war is five thousand miles away, but the bill is on your kitchen table right now.
In other news that matters
Iran likely behind water hack. A coordinated cyberattack targeted more than 30 community water systems in Minnesota on Sunday and Monday, hitting devices called programmable logic controllers — remote equipment used to monitor and manage water infrastructure. Federal investigators assess Iran was likely behind the attack, which also affected systems in at least six other states, triggered boil-water notices, and forced utilities onto manual operations. At a Camp David cabinet meeting Friday, President Trump dismissed Iran's role and blamed Governor Tim Walz, calling Minnesota "grossly incompetent." Walz responded that DOGE workforce cuts to CISA — the federal cybersecurity agency — had stripped roughly a third of its staff, leaving infrastructure exposed to exactly this kind of attack.
$23 billion student debt deal moves forward. A federal court has cleared the way for the largest settlement against the U.S. government in history. Sweet v. McMahon covers more than 450,000 borrowers defrauded by predatory colleges including ITT Technical Institute, Corinthian Colleges, and the University of Phoenix. On July 17, the Ninth Circuit — a federal appeals court — denied the Trump administration's latest delay attempt, triggering automatic debt cancellation for roughly 170,000 additional borrowers whose claims were never processed on time. The case has spanned three administrations since 2019, and one borrower's debt swelled from $250,000 to $400,000 while waiting for a decision.
TPS ends, caregivers face deportation. Temporary Protected Status — a federal program that lets immigrants from crisis-hit countries live and work legally in the U.S. — ended July 27 for roughly 350,000 Haitians after the Supreme Court's Mullin v. Doe ruling. At Cabrini of Westchester, a nursing home in Dobbs Ferry, New York, eight Haitian workers now await word on their future; the facility's workforce is 75% immigrant. Over 20% of Haitians in the U.S. work in healthcare — as nursing assistants, home aides, and hospital support staff — and the country already faces a projected shortage of 3.5 million healthcare workers by 2030. Lawmakers from both parties have warned this will deepen an existing caregiving crisis that was already serious before anyone's legal status changed.
P.S. Should oil companies face a war profits tax? Hit Reply — one word is enough.
