Good morning, it's Sunday, Nov. 1. Nearly 50 million Americans have already voted, and Tuesday's count could stretch for days in the states that may decide the Senate.

Also in today's issue: A list full of gaps, The FBI knocks in Alaska, Iran's two-day offer, Michigan Democrats split, Health plans cost more, An Epstein lawsuit ends, The arch goes to court.

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Nearly 50 million Americans have already voted, and almost none of those ballots have been counted. Officials can prepare early ballots, but they don't tally them until Election Day. So when polls close Tuesday, the country starts a count that some states will finish in hours and others in weeks.

Start with the ballots still on kitchen tables. In Michigan, a mailed ballot must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on Election Day, or it doesn't count. Most states, Florida included, have the same kind of deadline. The Postal Service suggests mailing a ballot at least a week early, so anyone still holding one has better odds at a drop box. And one state changed its rule this year in a way that could catch some voters off guard.

Turnout is running hot. Ohio broke its midterm early-voting record Saturday, with nearly 1.5 million ballots already in.

So why does counting take so long in some places? Mail ballots are slow work. Workers match each envelope's signature to voter records, then open it and flatten the ballot for scanning. Some states let that prep start weeks early. A few, including New Hampshire, don't allow it until Election Day.

Then there's the calendar. California counts ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive up to a week later. Its counties have 13 days to report most results. Alaska accepts ballots mailed from overseas for 15 days, according to PolitiFact.

Alaska and Maine also use ranked-choice voting. Voters rank the candidates in order. If nobody tops 50%, the last-place finisher is dropped and those votes move to each voter's next choice. Maine has usually known that outcome the week after the election.

That matters because the Senate, now split 53 to 47 for Republicans, could hinge on close races in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.

Now the state that changed its rule: Ohio. A 2025 law says most absentee ballots must arrive by the time polls close. Before that, Ohio gave mail ballots four extra days to show up. Supporters say a firm deadline means faster, cleaner results. Critics worry about voters who still assume the old grace period applies.

President Trump wants faster counts and has attacked California's process. Yet the Supreme Court ruled in June that states may accept late-arriving ballots if they're postmarked on time. Election experts add that early leads often flip as mail ballots are counted, as Wisconsin showed in 2020.

Trump predicted a "surprise" Saturday, and House Speaker Mike Johnson told a Michigan crowd the polls are wrong. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas warned conservatives that if only early votes counted, Republicans would lose badly. Many Republicans vote on Election Day itself, which is one reason the count can swing late.

Watch the order of the count Tuesday night. If a race flips overnight, check which batch of ballots was just added. If key Senate races are still uncalled Wednesday, control of Congress could stay unknown for days, especially if it comes down to Alaska.

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More than 4 in 10 names on a federal list of suspected noncitizen voters in California don't match anyone on the state's voter rolls. That's according to an analysis filed in court Saturday by two UCLA voting-rights researchers. They found 8,880 of the list's 20,930 names had no match. At least 22 people on it are confirmed citizens. Using the government's own method, they say nearly 7,500 naturalized citizens could be flagged by mistake. The filing was co-signed by Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate for California governor. The Justice Department, which is appealing a judge's order to stop threatening election workers, says every illegal ballot cancels out a citizen's vote. Checking voter rolls is legitimate work. The open question is whether this list is good enough to act on days before a vote.

The FBI began contacting donors to Dan J. Sullivan, the Alaska Senate candidate who shares the Republican incumbent's name. Agents reached people in Petersburg, Juneau and Massachusetts and asked whether they'd been misled about which Sullivan they backed. The donors who spoke publicly said no. One Juneau donor said agents asked if he knew the difference between the two men. On Saturday, Alaska's attorney general's office asked a federal judge to toss the Justice Department's lawsuit. The state says setting aside every ballot that ranks Daniel J. Sullivan would break ballot secrecy. Republicans say voters deserve to know whether a campaign tried to trick them. Mary Peltola again denies any role, and the department wants a ruling by Monday (Fox News).

Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, told his commanders Saturday to meet any new attack with an immediate response that has no geographic limits. His foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran has no plans to meet U.S. officials. But Araghchi said a new proposal with mediators could fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days. That depends on Washington meeting Iran's terms, which have included lifting the U.S. naval blockade. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump hasn't decided on new strikes. Trump said "one or two" targets remain, including a suspected nuclear site called Pickaxe Mountain. For drivers, a reopened strait is the quickest route to cheaper fuel. A new round of strikes would likely push the other way.

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Michigan's Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed asked his former primary rival, Rep. Haley Stevens, to stay away from his final campaign events, CBS News confirmed Saturday. Stevens had demanded he apologize for suggesting U.S. support for Israel is why Michigan can't afford schools and health care. She also urged him to condemn an outside group's ad tying grocery prices to aid for Israel, which she called antisemitic. El-Sayed said he didn't make the ad and disagrees with its content. Stevens' fiancé says he'll vote for Republican Mike Rogers. The open seat is a toss-up, and Rogers is courting centrist Democrats. A public rift this late hands him an opening in a race that could help decide the Senate.

Open enrollment for 2027 health plans on the Affordable Care Act marketplaces starts today. Insurers proposed a median premium increase of 15%, the second double-digit jump in a row, according to KFF. They point to rising medical prices and the end of extra federal tax credits last year. That change left a sicker, costlier pool of customers. Most enrollees, 87% this year, get subsidies that grow when benchmark prices rise. People who don't qualify pay the full increase. Insurers are leaving marketplaces in 24 states. Refugees, asylees and people with Temporary Protected Status also lose subsidy eligibility. Coverage that starts Jan. 1 requires signing up by Dec. 15.

A federal judge permanently dismissed President Trump's $10 billion defamation lawsuit against The Wall Street Journal and Rupert Murdoch on Saturday. The suit was over the paper's 2025 story about a crude birthday letter with Trump's name on it. The letter was in a 2003 album made for Jeffrey Epstein. Judge Darrin Gayles ruled Trump again failed to show "actual malice." Public figures must prove a paper knew a story was false or recklessly ignored the truth. Trump denies writing the letter, and the ruling didn't decide whether he did. Because the case was dismissed with prejudice, it can't be refiled in that court. His legal team says it will keep fighting.

Virginia and the District of Columbia sued Saturday to block President Trump's planned 250-foot triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery. It's the third lawsuit against the project, which would rise 100 feet higher than the Statue of Liberty. The White House says construction could start around Nov. 5. The two attorneys general say three years of work would snarl commuter traffic, slow emergency vehicles and pollute the Potomac River. They also argue Congress never approved it. The White House calls the arch a gateway honoring veterans and the fallen. Judge Tanya Chutkan, already weighing a pause in a veterans' lawsuit, has said she'll rule quickly. The states want a decision before ground breaks, since stopping work midway is harder.

That's the most an individual can be charged out of pocket for covered care in a 2027 ACA marketplace plan, up from $10,600 this year. Plans can set lower limits, which is why deductibles matter as much as monthly premiums.

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