Good morning, it's Friday, Sept. 11. Mortgage rates hit their highest point since last June as bond yields, war costs, and a Treasury secretary's convention speech raise hard questions about what comes next for American borrowers.

Also in today's issue: Houthis seize Red Sea port, SCOTUS blocks Missouri map, 200,000 in TPS limbo, Kimmel vs. the FCC, Trump's wartime oil profits.

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The numbers that landed Thursday aren't the kind you can file away and forget. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.76% — the highest since June 2025, and a steep climb from the 5.98% borrowers were seeing in late February, before the Iran war began.

Here's what that means at your kitchen table. If you're financing a $350,000 home — close to the national median — you're paying roughly $175 more per month than you would have six months ago. That's over $2,000 a year, on the same house, for the same loan.

Now look at what's behind it. The 10-year Treasury yield — the benchmark that mortgage rates tend to follow — hit 4.95% on Wednesday, its highest since October 2023. Before the war, it sat at 3.97%. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, a level not seen since 2007. August producer prices rose 0.4% in a single month, driven by energy costs the war keeps pushing higher. Traders now price roughly 71% odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when it meets September 16.

And this is where things get more complicated.

The Treasury Department held its first expanded bond buyback on Wednesday — buying back its own debt to calm markets and manage the nation's $40 trillion in borrowing. But it purchased only $5.19 billion of a $6 billion cap. When the Treasury doesn't use the full firepower of a tool designed to settle nerves, bond traders start asking whether the strategy is unclear — or whether the problem is bigger than the tool.

Here's the thing about bond markets: they don't just react to data. They react to trust. And trust took an unusual hit this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered a prime-time speech at the Republican National Convention on Tuesday — the first time a sitting Treasury secretary has appeared at a national party convention since 1976. Bessent manages the government's debt and maintains the credibility that lets the United States borrow at rates the economy can handle. That role depends on being seen as above party politics. When a Treasury secretary becomes a campaign figure, analysts warn, the market starts to wonder whether his decisions are shaped by economic judgment or political loyalty.

To be fair, Treasury secretaries have always been political figures — they serve at the president's pleasure. Bessent's defenders say the speech was a show of confidence, not a conflict of interest. But the line between political appointee and campaign surrogate matters in a market where perception moves prices. The last Treasury secretary to speak at a convention was William Simon, fifty years ago. The gap existed for a reason.

The practical reality: the U.S. is carrying $40 trillion in debt. Servicing it costs more every time yields rise. The war has pushed energy prices higher, which feeds inflation, which makes the Fed more likely to raise rates, which pushes yields up again. It's a cycle — and right now, nothing in the pipeline is set to break it. The Fed meets September 16. If it raises rates — now the market's base case — mortgage costs climb further, and pressure on the Treasury to show a credible plan for managing debt costs will grow. If it holds, the question shifts to whether inflation is already running too hot for patience. Either way, borrowers and homebuyers feel it first.

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^{This webinar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Range defines "high earners" as households with income over $300k.}

Houthi forces seized Yemen's Red Sea port city of Mokha on September 10, pushing toward the Bab el-Mandeb strait — the narrow waterway through which roughly 12% of global goods are shipped. The takeover, confirmed by both Houthi officials and pro-government commanders, gives Iran another pressure point in its war with the United States. Saudi Arabia launched at least 40 airstrikes in response and called on Pakistan and Turkey for military aid. Three doctors told the AP they fled after Houthi forces took the city's hospital. Mokha sits just 50 miles from the strait. If shipping through it slows further, the costs show up in consumer prices — adding to inflation already driven higher by the war. (UPI)

The Supreme Court blocked Missouri from using a Trump-backed congressional map for the November midterms — the second rejection this week, with no justices publicly dissenting. The state must revert to its 2022 map, which has six Republican and two Democratic seats, instead of a 2025 version that would likely have added a Republican seat. Here's the wrinkle: Missouri ran its August primary under the new map. That means hundreds of thousands of voters may find their general-election district differs from the one they voted in this summer — a situation with no modern precedent. The map goes before voters as Proposition A on November 3. (PBS)

About 200,000 Salvadorans who have lived and worked legally in the U.S. for 25 years entered legal limbo this week. Their Temporary Protected Status — a program that shields people from deportation when conditions in their home country are dangerous — formally expired September 9. DHS has issued no decision on extension or termination, saying only that protections "remain" while it prepares an announcement "at the appropriate time." More than 150,000 U.S.-citizen children have at least one TPS parent from El Salvador. These workers contribute an estimated $5.4 billion a year to GDP and hold a 90% labor-force participation rate. Some have already lost jobs because employers can't confirm their status. (LA Public Press)

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Jimmy Kimmel posted his interview with Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico to YouTube on September 10 instead of airing it on ABC. He said the FCC has "threatened me, threatened our show, threatened our network" over editorial choices about which candidates appear on air. CBS pulled a similar interview with Talarico from The Late Show in February under the same pressure, citing the FCC's equal-time rule, which can require broadcasters to give rival candidates matching airtime. In January, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr questioned whether late-night shows still qualify for the rule's news exemption. Two networks, two shows, one candidate — and a growing pattern of federal pressure on broadcast editorial decisions. (Texas Tribune)

A CNBC analysis found that President Trump's nine largest oil and gas holdings gained an estimated $1.5 million to $4.4 million during the first six months of the Iran war. His investment accounts kept trading energy stocks on days when wartime decisions moved markets. On March 2, the first trading day after the initial U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, his accounts bought shares in eight oil companies. On April 7, an account sold up to $1 million in Exxon — hours before the White House announced a ceasefire that sent the stock down 6%. The White House says independent managers control the accounts. Transparency International U.S. called the arrangement "a smokescreen, not a blind trust." (Quartz)

That's the number of U.S.-citizen children with at least one parent whose legal status is now uncertain — after Temporary Protected Status for Salvadorans expired September 9 with no decision from DHS on what comes next. These families have been here legally for a quarter century.

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