Good morning, it's Monday, Oct. 12. President Trump declared an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, but Moscow hasn't said yes.

Also in today's issue: A judge pulls Trump's TV ads, South Carolina's only debate, Houthis claim the Riyadh strike, Iran stops answering, Ohio's early-vote shift.

PS—Was this forwarded to you? Join The Bluebill here. Or forward this to a friend.

The quickest way to cool fuel prices this winter may have just arrived in a single social media post, and it's missing one signature.

On Sunday, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that there is now an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, effective immediately. "Both parties have agreed," he wrote. "Do not break it!" In plain terms, each side would stop attacking the other's oil refineries, power plants and fuel depots.

Markets took him at his word, at least overnight. Brent crude, the global oil price, fell more than 1% in early Monday trading, to about $103 a barrel. A drop of roughly $1.50 a barrel works out to about 4 cents a gallon on raw crude, before refining and taxes. If you heat your home with oil or fill a diesel truck, those cents are where this story touches you.

So who hasn't signed? Start with Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the announcement was news to him. Hours earlier, he had vowed to keep striking Russian refineries after Trump blamed Ukraine for high fuel prices and said the country needs a new president. By evening, Zelenskyy said Ukraine supports the ceasefire, that his military had received "all the appropriate orders," and that he expects Vladimir Putin to follow through.

Energy targets sit at the center of this war's long-range fight. Ukraine's drones have knocked Russian refineries offline, cutting into the fuel Russia sells abroad. Russian missiles have pounded Ukraine's power grid ahead of winter. A real pause on both sides could put more fuel on world markets and spare Ukrainian families blackouts in the cold months. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said it could protect thousands of civilians from harm.

Now the missing signature. Russia has not confirmed it agreed to anything. And after Trump's post, Zelenskyy said Russian strikes hit Ukrainian energy sites, including a power plant in Kharkiv.

The ceasefire also lands in the middle of a fight at home over Trump's arrangement to bring Russian diesel to market. On Sunday, six senators, including Republicans Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis and John Curtis, told the administration to "immediately reverse course." They say it skipped a legal requirement to consult Congress and hands Putin "a financial lifeline." Senate Republican Whip John Barrasso of Wyoming defended Trump on "Face the Nation," saying the president is balancing peace efforts against lower prices. Carney backed the ceasefire but criticized the diesel arrangement as a setback for ending the war.

The case for Trump's approach: he is pressing both sides to get barrels moving before winter, and markets responded within hours. The case against is just as clear. Announcing a truce one side hasn't confirmed risks rewarding whoever ignores it, and Ukraine was told after the fact.

So watch Moscow this week. If the Kremlin confirms and the strikes stop, Trump has a concrete win heading into the Nov. 3 midterms. If Russia stays silent while power plants burn, the senators' demand gets much harder to wave away.

The next wave of millionaires will be people who figured out how to make AI work for them.

The window to get ahead is still open. But not for long.

Here are 200+ proven ways to make money with AI in 2026.

Sign up for Superhuman AI, the free daily newsletter read by 1M+ professionals, and get instant access to all 200+ ways to profit from AI this year.

Claim your free list

A federal judge ordered the Trump administration Sunday night to cancel any remaining TV ads paid for with taxpayer money that promote the president and his record. U.S. District Judge Jennifer Rochon in New York granted a two-week restraining order, a short-term court ban, sought by the watchdog group Common Cause and others. The Department of Homeland Security spent $20 million on the campaign, using money Congress set aside for border-security events. Legal experts say that may break a federal law against spending public funds on "publicity or propaganda." The White House calls the spots public service announcements, like those past administrations ran. Justice Department lawyers told the court the ads were ending anyway, so the open question now is the money already spent.

South Carolina's only Senate debate turned sharp Sunday night. Sen. Darline Graham, a Republican appointed after her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, died in July, faced Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, and Libertarian Kasie Whitener. Andrews hit Graham for voting against ending the Iran war and pitched an optional public health plan families could buy. Graham called Andrews a socialist and backed Medicaid work requirements: "count me in." Andrews wants a two-year pause on new data centers; Graham called that a risk in the tech race with China. Graham skipped reporters afterward, and her spokesman wouldn't say where she stands on Trump's Russian diesel arrangement. South Carolina never expanded Medicaid, so health care is a live issue in a race polls show is unusually close.

Yemen's Houthis claimed a string of attacks on Riyadh's airport Sunday, including Saturday's strike that killed at least 12 people, among them an American, and wounded 309. The Iran-backed rebel group hit the airport's domestic terminals again Sunday. It also said it targeted Aramco energy sites and the airport in Dammam, in the heart of Saudi Arabia's oil region. Saudi authorities confirmed the Dammam attack and moved schools in the capital online. The claim settles who fired, and it raises the pressure on President Trump, who said Saturday the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes. Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, argued on "Face the Nation" that the U.S. should not go to war in Yemen.

Want an easy $0 marketing hack? @MarketingMax has driven 9 figures in client revenue. His favorite no-cost hack: find the angle that makes people NEED what you sell. STEAL His Marketing Hack Here →

Iran's top security official called Washington's latest response "insufficient" Sunday and said Tehran has stopped replying for now. Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander, said the U.S. accepted some of Iran's seven conditions for ending the war, but others remain unclear. Those conditions are tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane for much of the world's oil, and reportedly include lifting the U.S. naval blockade. That matters because President Trump paused new strikes on Iran until after the Nov. 3 election, pointing to productive talks. Rezaei also threatened undersea cables, data centers and AI facilities in the region if heavy fighting resumes. Those cables carry internet and banking traffic for much of the Gulf.

Early voting in Ohio is tilting toward Democrats, even in Trump country. In counties President Trump won by 20 points or more, Republicans led Democrats among early voters by 30 points at this point in 2024. This year that lead is just 5 points, according to state data analyzed by CNN. Ohio tracks party by which primary a voter last chose, so the numbers don't show how anyone actually voted. It's also early: about 11% of 2022's total early vote is in, and Republicans have increasingly voted in person or on Election Day. Ohio's Senate race, between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Sen. Jon Husted, could help decide which party controls the chamber.

That's how much taxpayer money Homeland Security spent on TV ads praising President Trump, the same ads a judge ordered pulled Sunday night. Asked on "Face the Nation" whether taxpayers would be repaid, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin didn't say yes.

P.S. Should Ukraine stop hitting Russian refineries? Hit Reply — one word is enough.