Good morning, it's Thursday, Oct. 15. Social Security's raise for next year is in, and it already trails the latest inflation number.

Also in today's issue: California's 48-hour deadline, Pardons at a rally, Ukraine's satellites throttled, Hormuz attacks hit a high, An ICE agent under scrutiny.

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If someone in your family lives on Social Security, their raise for next year arrived Wednesday, and it is already a step behind the prices it is supposed to cover.

The Social Security Administration announced a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027. For the average retired worker, that is about $76 more a month, or a little over $900 next year. It is the biggest bump since 2023. But a few hours earlier, the Labor Department said consumer prices rose 3.7% in September compared with a year ago. And one line on next year's bills could shrink that $76 before it ever reaches a bank account.

First, how the raise works. Nobody votes on it. A formula compares average prices for July through September with the same months a year earlier, and the payment rises by that much starting in January. So the raise measures last summer and pays out in winter. It also tracks the spending of working people in cities, not retirees. That matters, because Americans 65 and older spent nearly 2.5 times as much on health care as working-age adults in 2020, according to the government.

So what pushed prices up in September? Costs jumped 0.6% in a single month, the biggest gain in five months. Air fares are up about 22% from a year ago. The rush to build data centers for artificial intelligence has also raised prices for chips, laptops and phones. Even "core" inflation, which leaves out food and energy, ticked up to 2.6%.

Both parties have a story to tell about that. Kevin Hassett, the White House's top economic adviser, blamed the jump on Houthi attacks on Saudi oil sites and said Trump's policies are holding other prices down. Critics point to tariffs and the Iran war itself. Voters seem to lean toward the critics: an AP-NORC poll found just 17% of adults approve of how Trump is handling the cost of living. The honest answer is that the energy shock is real, but the rise in core prices shows the pressure is spreading beyond the pump.

Now that line on the bills. Medicare Part B, which covers doctor visits, is expected to raise its premium next year, probably by less than $20 a month, according to an analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center. For most people on both programs, that premium comes straight out of the Social Security check. An $18 increase would turn a $76 raise into $58. No wonder 76% of adults over 50 told an AARP poll that a raise of this size would not keep up with their costs.

So watch two dates. The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27–28, and most investors expect it to hold rates steady before a possible hike in December. Personal notices with each person's exact 2027 benefit arrive in early December. If October's numbers cool, this raise may stretch further than it looks today. If they don't, the gap between checks and prices becomes a central question for whoever wins on Nov. 3.

The Justice Department gave California 48 hours to check a federal list of people it believes are noncitizens who were mailed ballots for the Nov. 3 election. Under the letter, ballots from anyone whose citizenship can't be confirmed would be set aside, and anyone who hasn't received a ballot yet wouldn't get one. If the state misses the deadline, the department says it will ask a court for emergency relief. California mails a ballot to every registered voter. The head of the state's county clerks' group said it would take more than 48 hours just to begin checking. Such federal lists have come up short before: in July, the administration said Nevada had 1,500 noncitizen voters, and the real number turned out to be zero. This year the department has charged about 50 people with voting as noncitizens.

Two Alaska diesel mechanics walked off a rally stage late Tuesday holding presidential pardons. Zachary Czubak and Patrick Fleming pleaded guilty in 2022 to conspiring to violate the Clean Air Act by removing emissions controls from customers' trucks, charging $1,140 to $5,445 a job. Each got probation and a $66,000 fine. President Trump called them "wrongly charged." Supporters, including Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan, argue the equipment breaks down in extreme cold. Prosecutors said removing it causes a large jump in pollution from even one vehicle. Pardons are usually signed quietly, not handed out at a campaign event three weeks before an election that includes Sullivan's own close race. The Justice Department said in January it would stop bringing criminal cases like these.

A satellite network Ukraine relies on was throttled overnight into Wednesday, and a defense official in Kyiv said the restrictions disrupted "critical missions." The network, called Starshield, is built by Elon Musk's SpaceX and run under a Pentagon contract. Ukraine's military uses it to guide drones and to defend against Russian ones. Musk said any limits are set by the U.S. military and, ultimately, by President Trump. The White House and Pentagon didn't comment, and the limits had partly eased by afternoon. The move comes as Trump presses Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries, which he blames for high diesel prices. Analysts warn the U.S. could use support like this as leverage. Russian strikes killed six people in Ukraine on Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

Attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest level of the war this week, with at least 10 vessels hit since Sunday and 23 since Oct. 1. On Wednesday, a Singapore-flagged container ship sank after catching fire, and all 21 crew members were evacuated. Iran said the ship hit a mine on an "unauthorized" route. A U.S. official said Iran most likely struck it with a missile. Iranian officials reportedly said they began new tactics about 10 days ago to keep oil prices high. Brent crude, the global oil price, topped $106 a barrel. Trump has paused new strikes on Iran until after the election. At an Arizona rally Wednesday, he said a leak once forced him to call off a bomber raid and that "leakers should be shot."

A Houston-area prosecutor said Wednesday he could charge an ICE agent with aggravated assault after the agent's vehicle struck a man during a pursuit Saturday. Surveillance video appears to show the SUV moving toward Miguel Parra-Hernandez as he ran from a stopped truck. ICE says he ran in front of the vehicle and calls claims that he was hit on purpose "reckless and false." The agency says Parra is in the country illegally and was with a man who has a deportation order. Two ICE detainees were in the agent's back seat, but federal agents moved them to a detention center before local investigators could question them. Parra, who suffered leg injuries, has not been charged. A federal officer charged under state law can ask to move the case into federal court.

That's how much air fares have risen over the past year, according to Wednesday's inflation report. The Iran war's fuel shock is reaching travelers well beyond the gas pump, just as families start booking holiday trips.

P.S. Should Social Security raises track seniors' costs? Hit Reply — one word is enough.