Good morning, it's Thursday, Sept. 17. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years — and if you carry a credit card balance or need a new mortgage, you'll feel it within weeks.

Also in today's issue: Supreme Court blocks mail-voting rules, House votes to end Iran war — again, Trump's 28,700 stock trades, Kennedy Center forced shut, FBI won't rule out polling place agents.

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The Federal Reserve just made borrowing money more expensive for every American — and signaled it's probably not done yet.

On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, a unanimous 12-0 vote and the first hike since July 2023. Here's what that means at your kitchen table: if you carry a credit card balance, your rate — already averaging 22.15% — will climb within weeks. If you're shopping for a home, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have already crossed 7% for the first time in over a year. Auto loans, adjustable-rate mortgages, and home equity lines all get pricier starting today. The one bright spot: if you're saving, expect slightly better returns on CDs and high-yield savings accounts within a couple of weeks.

Now here's the thing. Nearly half of all outstanding mortgages in America are locked in at 4% or lower, according to the National Association of Realtors. That means tens of millions of homeowners are sitting comfortably — but anyone trying to buy right now faces a completely different economy than the people already inside their homes. That gap is widening, and it matters.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was blunt. "Inflation is too high and has been for too long," he said, pointing to more than five years above the Fed's 2% target. The latest reading put the Fed's preferred inflation measure at 3.7%. Monthly price increases quadrupled between July and August. Warsh said the Fed "cannot affect any individual price," but made clear the central bank sees its job as cooling the broader economy enough to bring prices down.

The White House disagreed. The chair of the Council of Economic Advisers called the hike a "mistake" the night before the decision. President Trump has repeatedly called for lower rates. Warsh declined to discuss any interactions with the president — a deliberate boundary that every recent Fed chair has tried to hold. Whether that wall survives sustained political pressure is one of the quiet institutional tests of this moment.

What makes this decision feel heavier than a single quarter-point move: sixteen of eighteen Fed officials now expect at least one more hike this year. The median forecast holds rates at 4.1% through 2027. That's not a one-and-done signal. That's the Fed telling the country: get used to this for a while.

And the timing cuts both ways. Diesel hit fresh record highs Wednesday, driven by the Iran war's disruption of oil markets. Gas is already at $4.33 a gallon nationally — roughly $500 more per household per year than twelve months ago. Higher interest rates on top of higher energy costs squeeze the same families from two directions. Groceries, shipping, rent — the pressure compounds. A Moody's economist noted that wealthy households, sitting on assets that benefit from higher rates, feel almost none of this pain. Lower-income families feel nearly all of it.

Markets, for their part, shrugged. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 0.8%. Wall Street had priced this in. Main Street is still doing the math.

The next inflation reading will decide whether the Fed's second hike lands in November or December. If prices cool, the Fed may pause. If they don't, borrowing costs keep climbing — and the political fight over who's to blame will sharpen heading into the midterms.

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The Supreme Court blocked the Trump administration's attempt to impose new mail-in voting restrictions before the midterms, ruling the government was "unlikely to succeed on the merits." Only Justices Alito and Thomas dissented. Justice Kavanaugh, a Trump appointee, called applying the rule now "arbitrary and capricious" — election officials simply didn't have time to comply. The rejected rule would have let the Postal Service throw out entire batches of ballots if a single envelope failed a barcode check. A USPS whistleblower called the system "secretive, rushed, chaotic, and fundamentally flawed." Roughly a third of all U.S. votes are cast by mail, and ballots are already going out in several states. Trump called the ruling "a big loss for Republicans" — a framing that reveals how the White House views mail voting more than it does the ruling itself.

The House voted 220-204 Tuesday to end the Iran war for a third time, with seven Republicans joining all Democrats. Iowa Rep. Zach Nunn, a Republican, said the "negotiating window" had closed and sustained combat now requires congressional sign-off under the War Powers Act — a law passed after Vietnam that limits a president's ability to wage war without Congress. None of the three resolutions have reached Trump's desk, where a veto is all but certain. This is likely the last House vote on the war before the midterms. A Senate vote is scheduled by October 2. The war, now nearly seven months old, has pushed oil prices past $107 a barrel — a major driver behind the gas and diesel costs hitting household budgets right now.

President Trump or his money managers made nearly 28,700 securities trades in seventeen months since his second inauguration — more than all 535 members of Congress combined, according to a Bloomberg analysis. That works out to roughly 80 trades per market day. During his entire first term, Trump reported about 500. Trump backs a House bill passed in July banning stock trading by members of Congress — but the bill exempts the president. A president can move markets with a single executive order or social media post. The question of whether that power and that trading volume should coexist is one Congress has chosen not to answer.

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Kennedy Center's board, hand-picked by Trump, voted Tuesday to immediately close the performing arts center, citing "dire" finances. Minutes earlier, a federal judge blocked the board — for the third time — from putting Trump's name on the building without congressional approval. Trump responded that repairs "cannot begin" until a higher court approves the name, effectively holding $257 million in congressionally funded repairs hostage to a branding dispute. The center's chief financial officer resigned the same day. Administrators say bankruptcy is weeks away. Ticket sales have collapsed and most prominent artists have canceled since Trump allies took control.

FBI Director Kash Patel declined to rule out sending agents to polling places on Election Day during a five-hour Senate hearing Tuesday. "I don't know that we can't legally do it," Patel told lawmakers. Since the Civil War, federal law has barred armed officers at election sites. Patel said the FBI has "election crisis coordinators" at all 56 field offices and that "this FBI will not shy away." Sen. Amy Klobuchar raised concerns that ICE agents could also appear at polls. The line between election security and voter intimidation is a legal one — and Patel's answers left it deliberately unclear which side the FBI plans to stand on.

Securities trades by President Trump or his money managers in seventeen months since returning to office — exceeding the roughly 22,200 reported by all of Congress combined. During his entire first term, Trump reported approximately 500 (Quartz).

P.S. Was the Fed right to raise rates now? Hit Reply — one word is enough.