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Good morning, it's Monday, Nov. 2. The Democrat who nearly won Michigan's Senate primary endorsed the Republican on Sunday, two days before a race that could decide who runs the Senate.

Also in today's issue: A judge clears Alaska's count, Talks or strikes on Iran, Soda off the SNAP list, Trump's farm country finale, The last Senate polls.

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Stevens Switches Sides

Three months ago, Haley Stevens asked Michigan Democrats to make her their Senate nominee. On Sunday, two days before the election, she asked Michigan voters to elect the Republican.

Stevens, a Democratic congresswoman from the Detroit suburbs, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers after sitting beside him at a service at Perfecting Church in Detroit. In a video, she said the Democratic nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, had told her she was no longer welcome in his campaign. "And he's right," she added, before announcing her switch.

Here's why that reaches far beyond Michigan. Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, and Michigan's seat belongs to Democrats now, since Sen. Gary Peters is retiring. If Rogers wins it, Democrats would need to flip five Republican seats instead of four to take control. Every Michigan voter who hasn't voted yet now faces a question nobody expected this weekend. Does one Democrat backing the other side change their own choice?

One figure from Sunday hints at how that question may break.

So how did it come to this? Stevens lost a close August primary to El-Sayed, a progressive doctor and a sharp critic of U.S. support for Israel. She endorsed him anyway. Then last week, she demanded that he condemn an outside group's ad tying U.S. military aid for Israel to grocery prices. She called the ad antisemitic and asked him to apologize for past remarks. El-Sayed said he didn't make the ad and disagreed with it. But he accused her of reopening a primary that ended in August. His campaign then asked her to skip his final events, including a planned unity stop in Detroit with South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn.

Stevens' side has a case. She says she spoke up for Jewish voters who felt brushed aside, and Rogers praised her for it. El-Sayed's defenders see it differently. To them, she put a personal feud ahead of her party, two days before a vote.

The backlash came fast. Much of her congressional staff resigned, including her chief of staff, who said the team was "shocked and heartbroken" by it. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called the move despicable. President Trump celebrated it online. El-Sayed brushed it off: "I actually don't think about Haley Stevens."

Switches like this are rare so close to a vote. The best-known modern case, Sen. Joe Lieberman backing Republican John McCain in 2008, came after Lieberman had already left his party to win reelection as an independent. Stevens is still a sitting Democrat, which makes Sunday's move far more unusual.

Now that figure. El-Sayed's campaign says it raised $1.2 million in the hours after the endorsement. And a final New York Times/Siena poll, which included interviews on Sunday, showed him leading Rogers by 11 points. Anger at a defector can push money and turnout to the person she left.

Watch Oakland County on Tuesday night, the suburban county Stevens represents. Most Michigan polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. If El-Sayed holds up well there, the endorsement probably cost him little. If Rogers runs ahead of expectations there, Sunday may be remembered as the moment the race turned. Either way, Stevens' own future in her party is now an open question.

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In other news that matters

A federal judge in Alaska threw out the Justice Department's lawsuit Sunday that aimed to hold up the state's Senate results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The department wanted ballots ranking the other candidate, retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan, set aside and investigated for voter confusion. Judge Sharon Gleason said the government offered "no workable plan" to do that without giving up ballot secrecy. Ballots carry no names and are mixed together once cast. The department appealed within hours, though the appeals court may not act before Election Day. Republicans say voters may have been misled by a planted candidate, and the FBI's criminal probe continues. For now, Alaska counts under its own rules.

President Trump said Sunday he had a "very good talk" with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Iran. According to Axios, Netanyahu pushed for U.S. strikes right after Tuesday's election, while Trump wants Qatar-led talks to play out. Still, Trump has warned that "the hammer" could come for Iran. Mediators met for a third straight day, and Iran's negotiators are in Qatar weighing a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Another ship was hit there Sunday by an unknown projectile. The UAE's top adviser said Gulf states are bracing for the worst. For drivers in the U.S. and Canada, the strait is what matters most. An agreement could reopen it, while new strikes would likely push fuel prices higher again.

Shoppers using SNAP food benefits in Virginia and South Carolina ran into new limits at the register Sunday. Virginia's roughly 710,000 recipients can no longer use benefits on soda, diet soda or carbonated energy drinks. Lemonade and iced tea still qualify. South Carolina, with about 482,000 people on SNAP, now bars candy, energy drinks and sugary drinks but allows diet soda. Benefit amounts don't change, and families can still buy those items with their own money. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says taxpayers shouldn't pay for products that fuel diabetes. Critics say the lines look random, since soda and lemonade carry about the same sugar. Montana and North Dakota are starting similar rules, according to Fox.

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President Trump wrapped up his midterm campaign with Sunday rallies in Iowa and Kansas, two states where Republican Senate seats are in play. In Dubuque, Iowa, he promised lower fuel prices and touted $8 billion in new diesel aid for farmers. But the same week, the Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Democrat Josh Turek over Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson. It was the group's first federal endorsement in years. Its president says diesel now costs double what it did last harvest, which he blames on the Iran war. The aid checks aren't expected until late November at the earliest, after the vote. Two Iowa Republicans who recently voted to limit Trump's war powers still joined him onstage.

Democrats lead in seven close Senate races, according to final New York Times/Siena polls released Sunday. Beyond Michigan, they're ahead by 7 in Texas, 6 in Maine, 5 in Kansas and Ohio, 2 in Alaska and 1 in Iowa. Only Michigan and Texas fall outside the margin of error, so the rest are statistical ties. Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, and Vice President JD Vance breaks 50-50 ties. That means Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Every race on that list except Michigan is a Republican seat. Polls can miss late swings, too. Many Republicans vote in person on Election Day, which can shrink early leads.

THE NUMBER

$55.4 billion

That's how much the federal government is on track to pay farmers this year once new diesel aid goes out, according to Farm Policy News. It would be a record and nearly one-third of all U.S. farm income. The old high, $45.6 billion, came in 2020.

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