Good morning, it's Wednesday, Sept. 23. President Trump threatened to "annihilate" Iran at the United Nations — then revealed his envoys held the first direct talks with Tehran since June.

Also in today's issue: Diesel hits all-time high, Republicans run from Trump, The White House launches Trump TV, Endangered species protections gutted.

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President Trump stood before nearly 130 world leaders on Tuesday and made two things clear: he is willing to destroy Iran, and he is also willing to talk to Iran. The question for the country is which path he actually means — and what both are already costing.

Start with the cost. Since the war began in February, gasoline has climbed roughly $1.50 per gallon, landing at $4.47 on Tuesday. Diesel — the fuel that moves your groceries and powers the combines pulling in this fall's harvest — set an all-time record at $6.53 per gallon. The Independent Grocers Alliance projects that sustained prices this high will push retail food costs up 2 to 4 percent. That's the price tag on a war most Americans now say they oppose.

A CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday found 71 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of foreign affairs — the lowest mark across both terms. Only 26 percent approve of his handling of the Iran war, down from 33 percent a month after it began. Among Republicans under 45, a majority — 53 percent — now disapprove. That generational split matters six weeks before midterms.

Now look at what actually happened at the UN. Speaking to the 81st General Assembly, Trump framed the choice in stark terms. "Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness or generations?" he asked the room. He then predicted a peace deal would come after the November 3 midterm elections, saying Iran is stalling "to see how I do."

That line is worth pausing on. If the president believes Iran is waiting on the midterms, he's publicly saying the war's outcome is tied to domestic politics — and that both sides know it. American voters are heading to the polls with a president who has told them, in plain language: the deal comes after you vote, not before.

But something quieter happened after the speech. Trump revealed that envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held a three-hour meeting with Iran's delegation through mediators — the first direct U.S.-Iran contact since June. Witkoff posted on X that the talks were "constructive and promising" and that another round is scheduled.

Here's the honest truth about where this stands. The president is holding two cards — annihilation and negotiation — and showing both at once. That can be strategy. Military pressure paired with real diplomacy has produced deals before. But the pressure has to serve the talks, not the headlines. When approval is falling, fuel prices are breaking records, and your own party's younger voters have turned against the war, the threat starts looking less like leverage and more like a speech aimed at a domestic audience.

The next round of talks is what to watch. Witkoff confirmed another meeting but hasn't set a date. If those talks produce even a partial framework before November, the midterm picture changes entirely. If they collapse, the president faces voters with record fuel costs, majority disapproval, and a war he predicted would end on his timeline.

Diesel set a record on Tuesday at $6.53 per gallon — up 77 percent from a year ago — as the Iran war and Russian refinery disruptions tighten global supply during peak harvest season. President Trump said he has "called for" a ban on diesel exports, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the administration is examining whether a ban is feasible — a shift for a White House that had previously resisted restricting fuel exports. But economists warn it could backfire: U.S. refineries produce 5.3 million barrels of distillate daily against 3.6 million in domestic demand, and cutting exports could force refiners to reduce output, tightening gasoline supply too. In Missouri, corn farmer Addie Yoder put it simply: "The only money we can make is the money we save" (Reuters).

Republican candidates are pulling away from President Trump ahead of the November midterms — and the breaks are reaching deep-red territory. Florida gubernatorial nominee Rep. Byron Donalds removed Trump references from his campaign website, swapping a page that called him a "Trump-endorsed Proven Conservative Fighter" for endorsements from Elon Musk, the late Charlie Kirk, and House Speaker Mike Johnson. Iowa Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson posted that "the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end." Seven House Republicans voted last week to limit Trump's war powers. These moves come from districts Trump won by double digits in 2024 — and in Florida, recent polls show the governor's race is now a statistical tie in a state Trump carried by 13 points.

The White House launched "Trump TV: The Essentials Station" on Monday — a 24/7 YouTube livestream — three days after banning CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House. All five broadcast networks had already suspended pooled coverage in protest. The stream opened with Trump's July 3 Mt. Rushmore speech and a promo set to "Video Killed the Radio Star." California Gov. Gavin Newsom called it "quite literally state-run TV." With the TV pool gone and this stream as the only video source of the president's events, there is no independent broadcast record of the presidency for the first time in decades. The banned outlets filed a First Amendment lawsuit; a hearing is set for Wednesday (NPR).

A federal directive quietly expanded the administration's rollback of the Endangered Species Act beyond what officials had publicly described, a Stateline investigation found Tuesday. A September 14 memo from Fish and Wildlife Service Director Brian Nesvik says industries may kill endangered animals during logging and development — as long as the killing is not "intentionally directed at a particular animal." Wildlife advocates say the reading makes the 50-year-old law nearly meaningless for habitat protection. Twenty states and Washington, D.C. have filed two lawsuits calling the changes "a reversal of staggering proportions." Separately, the administration proposed scrapping the Clinton-era "roadless rule" — which has protected roughly 58.5 million acres of national forest for over 20 years.

The price of a gallon of diesel on Tuesday — a new all-time U.S. record, up 77 percent from one year ago. It's hitting farmers in the middle of harvest season, when a single combine burns through 300 gallons a day, and it flows straight into the cost of everything that moves by truck.

P.S. Who needs this deal more — Trump or Iran? Hit Reply — one word is enough.