Iran's Attack, Medicare Premium Hike, and Fauci's 24 Words

Good morning, it's Thursday, July 30. Iran fired ballistic missiles at American forces Tuesday in what the Pentagon called a "surprise attack" — all were intercepted, but the war just entered a dangerous new phase.

Also in today's issue: Fauci pleads the Fifth, Medicare premiums climb, a judge questions DOJ defiance.

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Here's what you need to know about yesterday: every missile Iran fired at American troops was shot down. That's the good news. Here's the part that should keep you up at night — the U.S. is running out of the missiles that make those saves possible.

On Tuesday evening, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in the Middle East. U.S. Central Command called it a surprise attack. American and Jordanian air defenses intercepted all of them. Nobody was hurt. On paper, a clean win.

But look at the cost. Each Patriot interceptor runs about $4 million. A report this week from the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates the U.S. has burned through roughly 65% of its Patriot stockpile since this war started on February 28. Fewer than 827 remain out of a pre-war supply of about 2,200. NBC News has reported that U.S. commanders are now letting some incoming Iranian missiles land — on purpose — if they're headed for empty parts of American bases. That's not strategy. That's triage.

Now look at what you're already paying. Gas prices hit $4.10 a gallon last week, up nearly 39% since late February. That's roughly $400 to $500 extra per year for a family filling up once a week. Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — topped $100 a barrel last week and surged again Wednesday after the attack. If oil stays above $90, Goldman Sachs warns it could reach $120 by fall. That means gas could push past $5 in much of the country before the year is out.

Here's the thing about timing. Just one day before the missile strike, Trump told reporters the U.S. had paused operations. Diplomats from Oman were brokering talks. There was a window — small, fragile, but real. Iran's attack shattered it.

Trump's response Wednesday tells you where this is heading. He told Fox News the U.S. would give Iran "a beating." Hours later, American and Saudi forces struck Iran-backed militia targets in eastern Iraq. Those strikes came before any formal response against Iran itself — meaning the bigger hit is still coming.

The public is not behind this. Only 29% of Americans approve of how Trump is handling the war, per Washington Post polling. His overall approval hit 32% in the latest Quinnipiac poll — his lowest yet. Even among Republicans, support slipped from 85% to 76% in a single month.

What makes this moment dangerous is the gap between momentum and strategy. The military cycle keeps escalating — strike, counter-strike, retaliation — but there is no visible off-ramp. No ceasefire framework. No public negotiating position. Five months in, and the closest thing to a plan is a promise to hit harder.

Watch three things this week: the scale of Trump's retaliation, whether oil stays above $90 — because grocery and shipping costs follow — and Congress. Because 29% approval on a foreign war is the kind of number that makes even safe-seat Republicans start asking questions about authorization.

Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment more than 100 times at a Senate hearing Wednesday, refusing to answer a single question from lawmakers. The retired infectious disease chief read one 24-word statement over two hours, saying his attorneys advised him to stay silent. Senator Rand Paul, the Kentucky Republican who chairs the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, has called for Fauci's imprisonment for years and scheduled a contempt vote for August 5. Paul argues that former President Biden's preemptive pardon of Fauci means the Fifth Amendment no longer protects him — a legal theory that has never been tested in court. Fauci's lawyers say any new statements could open fresh investigations not covered by the pardon. Whatever you think of Fauci, using a congressional hearing as a years-long prosecution campaign — then threatening contempt when the witness exercises a constitutional right — is a troubling use of Senate power.

The Trump administration will end a Medicare program that kept prescription drug premiums stable for roughly 25 million Americans. The Part D Premium Stabilization program — which gave billions in subsidies to insurers so they could hold premiums down — will expire at the end of 2026. Dr. Mehmet Oz, who runs Medicare and Medicaid as CMS Administrator, called it a "bailout" and said premiums would rise "by less than $10" for most recipients. Independent analysts at KFF, a health policy research group, say the increase could reach $20 a month for some seniors — that's $240 a year on a fixed income. The program was created under Biden to absorb premium spikes caused by the Inflation Reduction Act's new $2,000 out-of-pocket cap on drug costs. Ending the subsidy doesn't repeal the benefit — it just shifts the cost from the government to seniors.

A Reagan-appointed federal judge told a Justice Department lawyer Wednesday, "You're violating my order, aren't you?" Judge Royce Lamberth was responding to the Trump administration's transfer of 10 transgender women to a segregated unit at a federal prison in Fort Worth, Texas. His June 7 order had blocked officials from moving trans women to men's facilities under a Trump executive order. Lamberth said the government appears to have violated his ruling "on its face" by stripping the plaintiffs of privileges they had in women's facilities. The DOJ lawyer disagreed, but the judge was not persuaded. When a federal court issues an order and the executive branch works around it instead of complying, the question stops being about any one policy — it becomes about whether court orders mean anything at all.

P.S. Should Congress vote to authorize the Iran war? Hit Reply — one word is enough.