Senate war vote, softer economy, and a $10 million ask

Good morning, it's Friday, July 31. The Senate rejected a resolution to end the war with Iran for the thirteenth time — as the economy slows and gas prices climb into a fifth month of pain at the pump.

Also in today's issue: Barnes exits Wisconsin race, Blanche vote hits a snag, Freedom 250 wants more money.

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Gas is $4.09 a gallon this morning. Five months ago, before the first American bombs fell on Iran, you were paying $2.98. That difference — roughly a dollar and eleven cents at every pump — is the war showing up in your household budget. And yesterday, for the thirteenth time, the U.S. Senate decided you should keep paying it.

Now look, we've been over the war powers vote before. But something is different about this one, and we'll come back to that. Because on the same day the Senate rejected Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's resolution to end the war — she's a Democrat from New York — the Commerce Department released its estimate of how the American economy performed from April through June. Growth came in at 1.5%, well below the 2.1% economists had forecast. That's not a recession. But it's the sound of an engine sputtering.

Here's the thing. When a war drags on, the costs don't stay overseas. They come home in the price of everything that moves — food, packages, plane tickets, the trucks that deliver your groceries. A family driving 12,000 miles a year in a car that gets 25 miles per gallon is now paying about $530 more annually in gas alone. Multiply that across roughly 130 million American households and you're looking at real money leaving real pockets — money that's not going to rent, food, or savings.

And this is where things get complicated. The Senate vote failed 49 to 50. Three Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Rand Paul of Kentucky — crossed the aisle to help end the war. One Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, crossed to keep it going. One vote. That's the margin between constitutional accountability and open-ended military action.

We've got to remember why war powers votes exist. After Vietnam, Congress passed a law in 1973 saying presidents can't keep American forces in hostilities beyond 60 days without congressional approval. It was designed to prevent exactly this — a war that never gets a formal vote, that just keeps going because nobody stops it. Thirteen votes. Thirteen failures. That's not a policy debate anymore. That's Congress refusing the job the Constitution gave it.

Here's the honest truth. Overnight, American strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island killed a couple and their two-year-old child, according to Iranian state media. We can't independently verify every casualty. But five months of bombing has not produced a settlement, a defined military objective, or a congressional authorization. It has produced dead civilians, a slowing economy, and gas prices that are quietly reshaping every family budget in the country.

Watch Fetterman closely. His vote is now the deciding vote every time this comes up. And watch what happens if third-quarter growth comes in worse than second-quarter. Because at some point, the economics of an endless war become the politics of an endless war. That reckoning is coming. The only question is whether Congress leads it or gets dragged into it.

Mandela Barnes exits Wisconsin's governor race with 12 days to go before the August 11 primary. The former lieutenant governor was the only Democrat polling ahead of Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in the general election. His exit came just before the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel was set to report that the state Democratic Party had reviewed allegations Barnes used his party role to seek sexual encounters with young adult women — a review that found the claims not actionable. Barnes denies wrongdoing. His departure likely hands the nomination to state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, who polls less competitively against Tiffany. Wisconsin law does not allow early voters to recast ballots, meaning some Democrats have already voted for a candidate no longer running. The party's most winnable path to the governor's mansion just narrowed considerably.

The Todd Blanche vote just got harder. The Senate Judiciary Committee postponed Thursday's vote on President Trump's attorney general nominee after Republican Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and Thom Tillis of North Carolina — both leaving office this year — refused to advance it. Their objection is the Justice Department's settlement of Trump's $10 billion IRS lawsuit, which includes a $1.8 billion "Anti-Weaponization Fund" that could pay January 6 defendants and grants Trump, his family, and his businesses audit immunity for past tax returns. Trump said he "may" temporarily withdraw and renominate Blanche — his former personal attorney — after the two senators depart. That move would let a friendlier committee push him through. It is a small preview of how personal loyalty and executive power keep colliding with basic legal norms.

Freedom 250 wants another $10 million. The Trump administration Thursday asked Congress for an additional $10 million to reimburse the National Park Service for a May prayer event, the Great American State Fair, and July 4 fireworks — on top of the $150 million already allocated for the country's 250th anniversary. Sen. Jeff Merkley, an Oregon Democrat, disclosed the request and asked why Freedom 250's corporate sponsors — Palantir, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, and Mastercard, most of them federal contractors — are not covering the costs themselves. The state fair drew thin crowds amid extreme heat, power outages, and near-empty exhibits after some states declined to participate. When taxpayers subsidize an event whose corporate sponsors already profit from federal contracts, that is not celebration. That is a transfer.

P.S. Should Congress vote to end the war with Iran? Hit Reply — one word is enough.