Michigan's $54M Primary Upset, Ankle Monitors in Ohio, and Spokane Wildfires

Good morning, it's Wednesday, August 5. Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary last night — outrunning roughly $54 million in outside spending to claim the nomination for one of the most closely watched seats in the country.

Also in today's issue: Ankle monitors for TPS holders, $1.4 billion for troops in D.C., Spokane fires force 65,000 out.

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More than $54 million in outside money flooded Michigan to stop one candidate. It didn't work.

Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official and the son of Egyptian immigrants, won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary last night, defeating four-term Representative Haley Stevens by a narrow margin. NBC News projected the win early Wednesday morning. Here's what matters: for every Democratic voter who cast a ballot yesterday — and more than 1.5 million did, a non-presidential primary record — outside groups spent roughly $36 trying to shape their choice. The voters said no.

Now look, the money here is worth understanding. AIPAC's political arm, the United Democracy Project — a super PAC tied to the country's most powerful pro-Israel lobbying group — poured over $30 million into the race backing Stevens. That's the most the group has ever spent on a single contest. Other outside groups pushed the pro-Stevens total past $54 million. El-Sayed's side had about $5 million. A ten-to-one gap. And he still won.

Here's the thing. This wasn't a protest vote in a safe blue district. Michigan is a genuine swing state — one of just two where Democrats hold a Senate seat that Donald Trump carried in 2024. El-Sayed ran on Medicare for All — government-funded health coverage for every American — sharp criticism of U.S. military aid to Israel, and a direct challenge to big money in Democratic primaries. He had backing from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. Stevens had the support of Gretchen Whitmer, the state's popular Democratic governor, who endorsed her late as a last effort to slow El-Sayed's rise.

And this is where it gets complicated. The National Republican Senatorial Committee — the GOP's campaign arm for Senate races — ran digital ads during the primary highlighting El-Sayed's progressive positions and his Sanders endorsement. Trump told Fox News on Tuesday that Republican nominee Mike Rogers, a former congressman, would "do much better against Abdul." The opposition picked its preferred opponent and said so out loud.

So the question now sits with Michigan Democrats. El-Sayed heads into November in a state Trump already won. Rogers is a former House Intelligence Committee chair with establishment Republican backing and none of the wear from a primary fight. The general election will test whether the grassroots energy that beat $54 million in a primary can hold a swing state in a midterm year. National Democrats will have to decide quickly how much to invest in a nominee some in the party didn't want.

Here's what happened yesterday, plain and simple. A record number of Democratic primary voters showed up. They were told — through tens of millions of dollars in ads — to pick a different candidate. They made their own call. If El-Sayed wins in November, he would become the first Muslim United States senator in American history.

This result is both a victory for voters who refused to let outside spending choose their nominee, and a gamble that the candidate who excites the base can also win the middle. Michigan will settle that question in November.

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Haitian immigrants in Ohio are being summoned to ICE field offices and fitted with ankle monitors after the Supreme Court ruled in June that the Trump administration could end Temporary Protected Status — a legal shield from deportation for people whose home countries are too dangerous to return to — for roughly 350,000 Haitians. At the ICE office in Blue Ash, Ohio, Sony Prenice said she was given two options: wear a monitor that limits her to a 75-mile radius, or accept deportation to Haiti with $2,600. Springfield, Ohio — the community where Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance spread false claims about Haitian immigrants during the 2024 campaign — is among the places affected. These are people who followed every legal requirement for years, held work permits, and paid taxes. The State Department currently rates Haiti at Level 4 — its highest warning — telling Americans not to travel there due to kidnapping, crime, and instability. The same government that says Haiti is too dangerous for American tourists has decided it's safe enough to send Haitians back.

Keeping National Guard troops on the streets of Washington, D.C. through January 2029 will cost an additional $1.43 billion, according to a Pentagon estimate given to Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts. That works out to roughly $51 million per month — on top of the estimated $700 million already spent since the deployment began in August 2025. The total price through the end of Trump's term: about $2.1 billion. The mission, launched under Trump's D.C. Safe and Beautiful executive order, has had no measurable effect on violent crime according to independent research. The National Guard recently signed a $292 million contract to move troops from hotels into long-term apartments — a sign this was never planned as a short-term operation.

Three wildfires around Spokane, Washington, have burned over 10,500 acres, destroyed more than 700 structures, and forced roughly 65,000 people to evacuate since Saturday. Aaron Farinacci, 37, was arrested Monday and charged with first-degree arson in connection with the Old Trails Fire, the most destructive of the three. He has a prior manslaughter conviction for killing his father in 2010 and had been contacted by law enforcement about two other suspicious fires near his home last summer. Fourteen people remain unaccounted for and all three fires sit at zero percent containment. Governor Bob Ferguson declared a statewide emergency and requested federal disaster help.

P.S. Can El-Sayed win Michigan in November? Hit Reply — one word is enough.